5 for Friday: Close games are where Tomlin shines.
Winning is the bottom line when it comes to coaching.
And winning close games is something that helps separate the good coaches from the great ones.
Given the analytics involved, all NFL coaches should have a record right around .500 when it comes to winning one-score games, which is defined by a game decided by eight points or less.
There are people who scoff at Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin’s run of 17 seasons without a losing record to begin his career. The people who do that don’t understand how difficult and rare that truly is.
But what’s even more impressive is Tomlin’s record in one-score games.
Since 1970, only four head coaches who have coached at least 100 games have more than Tomlin’s 98 wins in one-score games. And those coaches – Bill Belichick (120 wins), Andy Reid (110), Don Shula (106) and Dan Reeves (105) – all have coached far longer than Tomlin.
Even more impressive is Tomlin’s career winning percentage in one-score games. Tomlin has compiled a 98-61-2 record in one-score games, a winning percentage of .615 that is the highest in the NFL, tied with Tony Dungy for that honor.
Just behind him are Shula (.612), Marty Schottenheimer (.597) and Bud Grant (.596).
Tomlin’s record in one-score games is even more impressive when things are broken down since the 2007 season.
His 98 wins in one-score games in that time are 20 more than Reid, 27 more than John Harbaugh and 29 more than Belichick.
And lest anyone think those other coaches haven’t had as many opportunities, that’s not the case. For example, since 2007, Belichick is 69-50 in one-score games, a .580 winning percentage, while Reid is 78-67-1, a winning percentage of .538.
Knowing how to win one-score games is an art. The Steelers, for example, went 9-2 in one-score games in 2023. The Ravens, as another example, went 4-4 in one-score games last season.
Analytics say that having a 9-2 record in one-score games in one season means that a team will slip back towards the norm the following season.
But Tomlin is an outlier when it comes to winning games in that fashion. It’s the same reason the Steelers have 15 wins since 2000 in games in which they entered the fourth quarter trailing, five more than the next closest team, the Chiefs.
But there’s a definite buzz starting to be created about the offensive line the Steelers have assembled.
As mentioned in this space last week, this is the time of year for lists, as everyone is struggling to come up with interesting content.
Multiple outlets have their rankings of different units across the league, and the Steelers’ offensive line is getting plenty of love.
Just this week, Pro Football Focus ranked that unit as the ninth-best group in the NFL.
The site’s reasoning? “The Steelers spent back-to-back first-round picks on offensive tackles, and then selected center Zach Frazier in the second round of this year’s draft. Those investments should pay off soon, and the team already got solid play from its guards in 2023.”
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