Pacers fans, which scenario do you think is more likely in the 2025-2026 season: — The Pacers securing a Top 5 spot in the East (4th or 5th seed) *without* Tyrese Haliburton? — Or the Spurs making the playoffs with a fully healthy Victor Wembanyama in his third year? I made a bet with my big brother, and he’s going with the Spurs. What do you think?

Pacers fans, which scenario do you think is more likely in the 2025-2026 season:

— The Pacers securing a Top 5 spot in the East (4th or 5th seed) *without* Tyrese Haliburton?

— Or the Spurs making the playoffs with a fully healthy Victor Wembanyama in his third year?

 

I made a bet with my big brother, and he’s going with the Spurs. What do you think?

 

 

## 🟦 Scenario 1: Pacers *Finish Top 5 in the East Without Haliburton?*

 

### 🔹 The Big Challenge

 

* **Haliburton’s absence** is massive: he tore his Achilles in Game 7 of the Finals and is expected to miss most (if not all) of 2025–26 ([talksport.com][1]).

* When he sat out this season, the Pacers went just **4–5**, illustrating how heavily their top‑5 hopes rely on him ([statmuse.com][2]).

 

### 🔹 Depth and Team Culture

 

* Reddit and Pacers communities believe Indy has enough depth to **make the playoffs** even without Haliburton—though likely in the 6–10 seed range, not top five ([reddit.com][3]).

* Coach Rick Carlisle and role players like Mathurin, Siakam, Nembhard, and Walker will need to step up significantly ([si.com][4]).

 

### 🔹 Odds Outlook

 

* Pre-Injury: Indiana was +800 to win the title; now it’s hovered around +1800, reflecting diminished expectations ([si.com][5]).

* Realistically: a solid playoff team — but Top 5? Likely a stretch without their star.

 

—

 

## 🔸 Scenario 2: Spurs Make Playoffs with Healthy Wembanyama?

 

### 🔹 Bright Future with Caveats

 

* The Spurs improved from **22 to 34 wins** and missed the playoffs in 2024–25 — Wemby missed significant time due to injury ([reddit.com][3], [en.wikipedia.org][6]).

* A healthy Wemby (fully recovered) paired with *De’Aaron Fox*, plus young pieces like Castle, Sochan, and Vassell, gives San Antonio a **real playoff shot** ([en.wikipedia.org][7]).

 

### 🔹 Support & Coaching Updates

 

* Additions: De’Aaron Fox was acquired midseason and boosted postseason odds significantly ([thescore.com][8]).

* Offseason focus: More shooters and depth, new coach Mitch Johnson in place ([poundingtherock.com][9]).

 

### 🔹 Market Predictions

 

* Their Play-In odds climbed from \~12% to \~20% with Fox ([thescore.com][8]).

* If they maintain health and add key role players, break through the West Play-In makes plausible sense.

 

—

 

## 🧭 Which One Makes More Sense?

 

| Factor | Pacers (w/o Haliburton) | Spurs (w/ Wembanyama) |

| ——————– | ———————— | ———————- |

| **Star Power** | Gone | Present & healthy |

| **Supporting Cast** | Solid but compromised | Young and improving |

| **Offseason Moves** | Re-signs? Rebalances? | Growth + key additions |

| **Odds & Analytics** | Mid-seed playoff outlook | Play-In range (\~20%) |

 

While both are possible, the **Spurs with a healthy Wembanyama** seem more believable. They have star talent present, meaningful additions already made, and increasing playoff momentum. Indiana without Haliburton faces an uphill climb to a top-five spot in the East.

 

—

 

### 🏀 Final Take:

 

The Spurs—fully healthy and evolving their roster—seem the smarter bet to reach the postseason. Pacers fans, where do *you* side? Are you sticking with your brother’s Spurs pick… or betting on Indy’s depth and fight?