The Giants should not give up on their projected position in the wild-card competition.
It’s the season of anticipated standings! This is the point at when numbers are generated by computers, and humans feel upset about both the numbers and the computers. For now, it’s innocent entertainment, but the machines are logging in. They will recall who retaliated against them when the singularity occurs and they seize control. If you know what’s best for you, stay on the correct side of history.
Tuesday saw the release of Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA-projected standings; keep in mind these are forecasts rather than actual results before getting too involved. They are not prophecies, to start. That is an extremely significant distinction. The forecasts are based on an average of 1,000 simulated seasons, with various sliding doors and road forks present in each season. A few of them are defined by seasons of unexpected success and injuries. Some will present situations where everything goes according to plan for the majority of the teams, while others would heap the majority of the disappointments onto a select few teams. After averaging them all, you obtain the result you see at the link.
They even provide you with a helpful visual assistance to better comprehend this (charts courtesy of Baseball Prospectus):
These simulations contain extremes. You can’t imagine how bad (or good) some of them are. However, the majority of them fall in the middle, which is how the San Francisco Giants’ projected record of 81-81 gets arrived at. It wasn’t 79.9 loses and 81.1 victories. It was exactly 81.0 for both victories and losses, which is rather ideal. The Giants are the most average team that has ever averaged in a thousand simulations.